This report is one of many published by Icon Group Ltd. In addition to industry-specific studies, Icon Group Ltd. This report covers the world outlook for hardware, plumbing and heating equipment and supplies wholesale across countries. For each year reported, the estimates are given for the latent demand for the country in question. Icon Group uses a number of proprietary econometric models which project economic changes within each country and across countries.
From there, market potential estimates are created. The distribution of the world market, however, will not be evenly distributed across regions. In essence, if a firm targets these top 3 regions, they cover come In this report, two modelling approaches are used. The first involves modelling the economic fundamentals of each market over time. This is based on standard models of economic growth e. The second approach is more subtle.
The second approach involves collecting information on the market size or market potential for the particular product or service in question, typically in national currency, and translating these into a common currency. Icon Group uses the U. For some categories and markets, basic demand indicators are reported in national statistics, as is mostly the case for the United States and other developed markets. In most of the www. For these, Icon Group uses econometric models to estimate these markets, and forecast these over time.
As true for all forward-looking economic forecasts, certain critical assumptions must be made. Two types of assumptions are made for the models used in this report. The first type covers the socioeconomic and global environment.
In essence, Icon Group assumes that dynamics seen in the past are likely to continue in the future, without major discontinuous changes. For example, if a city, country or region has not seen civil strife, major recessions, or substantial foreign exchange or currency changes, this is assumed to be the case over the forecast period.
Likewise, the worldwide demand is foreseen to progress in a fashion similar to that seen in historical figures, based on aggregated data collected at the national level. The extent to which these assumptions are violated in the future will surely affect the accuracy of the forecasts presented here. The second type of assumption is of greater importance, especially for those markets where insufficient local information is reported in the public domain, or in markets where there is higher uncertainty. Here, we use cross-country econometric models of demand, often called a crosssectional pooled time series models with varying parameters.
In simple terms, we assume an underlying consumption function that is allowed to vary over time and across geographic markets.
CEMEX’s Strategic Mix
Economists have long proposed various consumption functions. Across these, and other authors, the consumption of a product as opposed to the amount produced is foreseen to vary depending on a number of local factors and the time frame that one considers short-, medium- and long-run. In general, the variance of the market potential across markets is foreseen to be a function of variances in income, wealth, interest rates, expected future income, and a variety of exogenous factors, including geography and culture.
Icon Group forecasts primarily rely on non-cultural economic factors in modelling cross-market demand, for a given product or service. We also model the market potential using a consumption function which assumes a constant average propensity to consume in the long run i. Once the cross-market model of demand is specified, it is combined with the local economic models described above. As in all econometric exercises, the lack of local market figures in the public domain results in estimation errors. Furthermore, many intervening factors may arise over time that can materially affect the accuracy of the forecasts, including changes in local economic conditions, changes in political regimes, improvements in primary data, and currency fluctuations, among other factors.
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As the estimates and forecasts reported here are forwardlooking and subject to assumption-induced errors, you are asked to read the caveats and disclaimers at the end of this report. Lucia Antigua and Barbuda Grenada St. Vincent and the Grenadines St. Kitts and Nevis Dominica Total 24, 2, 36 20 14 14 12 9 7 7 6 2 2 1 1 1 1 26, Kitts and Nevis - Year St. Lucia - Year St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Year St. This publication "Report" does not constitute legal, valuation, tax, or financial consulting advice.
Nor is it a statement on the performance, management capability or future potential good or bad of the company ies , industry ies , product s , region s , city ies or country ies discussed. It is offered as an information service to clients, associates, and academicians. Information was furnished to Icon Group Ltd. EDGAR filings, national organizations and international organizations. Icon Group does not promise or warrant that we will obtain information from any particular independent source.
Icon Group reports are used by various companies and persons including consulting firms, investment officers, pension fund managers, registered representatives, and other financial service professionals. Any commentary, observations or discussion by Icon Group about a country, city, region, industry or company does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell company shares or make investment decisions. Further, the financial condition or outlook for each industry, city, country, or company may change after the date of the publication, and Icon Group does not warrant, promise or represent that it will provide report users with notice of that change, nor will Icon Group promise updates on the information presented.
Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements. Icon Group reports, including the present report, make numerous forward-looking statements which should be treated as such. Forwardlooking statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Reform Act of , and similar local laws. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause a company's, city's, country's or industry's actual results or outlook in future periods to differ materially from those forecasted.
These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, product price volatility, exchange rate volatility, regulation volatility, product demand volatility, data inaccuracies, computer- or softwaregenereted calculation innacuracies, market competition, changes in management style, changes in corporate strategy, and risks inherent in international and corporate operations. Forward-looking statements can be identified in statements by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. They use words such as "anticipate,'' "estimate," "expect,'' "project,'' "intend,'' "plan,'' "feel", "think", "hear," "guess," "forecast," "believe," and other words and terms of similar www.
Hardware, Plumbing and Heating Equipment and Supplies Wholesale meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating, economic or financial performance. This equally applies to all statements relating to an industry, city, country, region, economic variable or company financial situation. Icon Group recommends that the reader follow the advice of Nancy M. Smith, Director of SEC's Office of Investor Education and Assistance, who has been quoted to say, "Never, ever, make an investment based solely on what you read in an online newsletter or Internet bulletin board, especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn't well known … Assume that the information about these companies is not trustworthy unless you can prove otherwise through your own independent research.
In the case of Icon Group reports, many factors can affect the actual outcome of the period discussed, including exchange rate volatility, changes in accounting standards, the lack of oversight or comparability in accounting standards, changes in economic conditions, changes in competition, changes in the global economy, changes in source data quality, changes in reported data quality, changes in methodology and similar factors.
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